A Democratic Shoe-in for 2008?

The outcome of the 2008 Presidential race seems clear. Dissatisfaction with President Bush and the War in Iraq is very high. Voters say they would vote generically for the Democratic party over the Republicans by large margins. Democrats in the Presidential race have raised more than $100 million more their counterparts. Looking at the way things stand right now, it seems all but certain that a Democrat will be elected to the White House in November of 2008...

Not so fast. While all of these things are devastating hurtles for Republican Presidential hopefuls, it is far too early to cast a victor in the race. This is true for two reasons: the focus of the race is not guaranteed to stay the same all the way up until the election, and Hillary Clinton.

We have already said that the deck is stacked against the Republicans because of the War in Iraq. However, it is impossible to say what the situation will look like by the time the election rolls around. A widely-sited recent report by Michael O'Hanlon and Keith Pollack of the Brookings Institution claims that the recent U.S. troop surge has had a significant effect in pacifying portions of the country. Under the leadership of General Patraeus, troop morale has increased markedly and many Iraqis have turned against Al-Qaeda and its brutal tactics. ("A War We Just Might Win"). If this recent success is continued, it is within reason to think that Iraq could look substantially better at election time than many have assumed. Even if Iraq remains a significant obstacle, it is possible that it could be trumped in importance by the emergent threats of Iran or North Korea. If so, the candidates' stances on these new national security issues could play out to be just as important as their opinion on whether the Iraq War was a good decision - or even their plan for going forward. No doubt about it, Republicans in the coming election will make every effort to shift the focus to issues that play more in their favor. While the public is focused on Iraq now, there is no guarantee that will be the main issue 15 months from now.

The second reason that it is premature to call this race for the Democrats is because of Democratic primary voters themselves. Hillary Clinton has led the race by wide margins from the beginning, and her lead shows no signs of narrowing. In all likelihood she will be the Democratic nominee; all that remains to be seen is who her VP choice will be. While many predict that Obama will win out, it seems unlikely that the Democrats would simultaneously attempt to break the color and gender barriers in one election cycle. More likely in my opinion is John Edwards. Regardless of who she picks, however, Hillary's candidacy will suffer from one overwhelming burden: the fact that she is not wildly liked by moderates, and is loathed by conservatives. Indeed, in almost all current polls where Hillary is matched up against either Fred Thompson or Rudy Giuliani, she garners less than 50%. (Thompson vs. Hillary; Giuliani vs. Hillary ) When Clinton is matched up against Thompson, who I have already predicted to be the Republican nominee, she is leading by a current margin of about 4%. These poll matchups will fluctuate in the coming weeks and months, but the fact that Clinton is essentially even with a largely unknown quantity like Thompson, while virtually everyone knows her and what she stands for, should be a serious concern for anyone in her camp. At this point, my opinion is this: any advantage the Democrats have over the Republicans in the polls is completely wiped away with a Hillary nomination. We will be back to a 50-50 America.